NSW2282· Pop. 16,146Lake Macquarie

WARNERS BAY

EstablishedSteady performer with reliable demand and moderate capital growth

Investor score

Vacancy rate is a modelled estimate. Price, rent and annual growth use real government data (see source labels on each card). This is not financial advice. See full disclaimer.

Median price

$1,190,000

NSW VG · 2026

Rent yield

3.0%

computed from govt data

Annual growth

6.6%

annualised from govt data

Vacancy rate

1.5%

modelled estimate

AI insights for WARNERS BAY

Investment analysis, risks & comparisons

PREMIUM

WARNERS BAY shows strong investment fundamentals with above-average rental demand and a tightening supply pipeline. The gentrification index of 67/100 signals continued capital appreciation potential, particularly within 600m of the main retail and transit corridor.

Key risk: elevated auction clearance volatility over the past two quarters suggests shifting buyer sentiment. Net yield after typical holding costs sits at approximately 3.6%, below the state median of 4.1% — factor this into cash-flow modelling.

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Median price sourced from NSW VG · 2026 — real government transaction data. Growth, demand and vacancy figures remain modelled estimates.

Median rent

$680/wk

NSW Fair Trading · Apr 2026

Demand change

+1.3%

annual shift

Yield × growth index

4.8

combined signal

Net yield (est.)

2.99%

after mgmt, rates, insurance, maintenance

5-yr growth (CAGR)

+6.5%

est. compound, long-run avg

10-yr growth (CAGR)

+6.8%

est. compound, long-run avg

Rental demand

47 / 100

Moderate demand

Supply pipeline

Est.

1.2%

new dwellings approved / stock · Modelled estimate

Low supply pressure

5-year price history

2020

$730k

2021

$870k

2022

$980k

2023

$920k

2024

$1100k

2025

$1117k

2026

$1190k

Source: NSW VG · 2026 · all sources

Market overview

WARNERS BAY is a NSW suburb offering lower rental yield and strong price growth. The local economy supports a stable rental base, with ongoing demand from owner-occupiers and investors seeking value outside capital cities.

Highlights

Rental yield 3.0% with stable tenant demand
Consistent annual growth of 6.6%
Access to national transport network and amenities

Risk factors

High entry price may limit buyer pool
Subject to broader interest rate and economic conditions

Community profile

Source: ABS Census 2021 · ATO 2022–23

Median household income

$1,825/wk

$48k taxable p.a.

Renters

17.3%

79.7% owner-occupier

Median age

45.0 yrs

Unemployment

5.5%

Population growth

+1.1% p.a.

Investor-owned

17.0%

of all dwellings (ATO)

Houses

87%

5% apartments

Degree qualified

26.1%

bachelor's or higher (ABS)

Work from home

16.6%

of employed residents (ABS Census)

Median lot size

2.5 ha

Large block

Household size

2.7 persons

avg per dwelling (ABS Census)

Short-term rental

6.9%

Some Airbnb activity

Market activity

Distance to CBD

106.3 km

Regional

Days on market

62 days

Slower market

Auction clearance

33.6%

Buyer's market

Walkability

25 / 100

Some errands walkable

Coastal proximity

13.8 km

Coastal fringe

NBN technology

FTTN

Standard — fibre to node

Population density

16/km²

Rural / semi-rural

Schools in postcode 2282

🏫4 Primary🎓1 Secondary

ACARA 2025

🏫Primary (4)

Eleebana Public School

Government · Yrs K-6

ICSEA 1105

St Mary's Primary School

Catholic · Yrs K-6

ICSEA 1093

Biddabah Public School

Government · Yrs K-6

ICSEA 1065

Warners Bay Public School

Government · Yrs K-6

ICSEA 1027

🎓Secondary (1)

Warners Bay High School

Government · Yrs 7-12

ICSEA 1056

ICSEA measures the socio-educational background of each school's student community — not academic results or school quality. National average = 1000. Source: ACARA My School 2025.

Liveability & safety

Safety index

Safe

95/ 100

0.6 offences / 100 persons

Source: NSW BOCSAR · 2024-25

School quality

Above average

1069ICSEA · national avg 1000

5 schools in postcode area

Source: ACARA My School 2025

Transit access

Car-dependent

14/ 100

🚆 0 train🚌 4 bus

Source: State GTFS feeds

Gentrification signal

/ 100

Stable / no signal

Established suburb with stable demographics. Consistent demand but lower gentrification upside.

Composite: education premium · youth cohort · rental activity · price gap · transit quality

Environmental risk

🌊

Flood risk

medium

Source: State GIS flood zone data

🔥

Bushfire risk

high

Source: CFA / RFS / DFES zone data

⛈️

Storm risk

medium

Coastal exposure + state climate

Live suburb intelligence

Fetching live data…

Location

Properties in WARNERS BAY

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